Driver shortage is stabilising, reports suggest
Recent reports have highlighted apparent signs that the HGV driver shortage is stabilising, seemingly due in part to increased provision of driving tests by the Driver & Vehicle Standards Agency.
The trade group’s February Skills and Employment Update points to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which suggested that the number of HGV drivers in employment was still falling towards the end of 2021, albeit less steeply than earlier in the year.
Data from the ONS quarterly labour force survey (QLFS) indicates that the number of employed HGV drivers fell 49,000 in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the same time in 2019, meaning the workforce was 15.6 per cent smaller than prior to the pandemic.
While this drop is broadly similar to that of the third quarter of 2021, it is significantly less than the previous quarter’s fall, which saw a 72,000 decrease.
Logistics UK attributed the signs of stabilisation in part to an improvement in HGV vocational test availability. 27,144 were undertaken in the fourth quarter last year: a 53.5 per cent increase on the same period in 2019, prior to the pandemic.
It also highlighted the surge in average driver pay, which rose by nearly 12 per cent in the 12 months to January, and a 21 per cent increase in advertised salaries in the year up to Q4 2021.
“The new ONS data shows that attracting new entrants to the profession, and ensuring sufficient tests are available, are key to the resilience of the logistics sector,” said Elizabeth de Jong, director of policy at Logistics UK.
“The long waiting list to take a vocational HGV test in Great Britain has been a key contributor to the driver shortage crisis; the data in the report… shows that the DVSA is making progress in catching up on the testing backlog which grew out of the restrictions under the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Logistics UK will be working with its members and government to ensure focus remains on reducing the shortfall in HGV drivers.”
Ms De Jong also highlighted a “soaring” number of van drivers in the workforce; the report cited a net increase of 17,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021 as compared to Q4 2019, which she attributed “possibly to new job opportunities arising in this market, with demand for online shopping increasing throughout the pandemic.”
The Skills and Employment Update reiterated the significantly older age profile of HGV drivers, whose average age is 51. However, it reported: “some signs that recruitment initiatives to attract younger drivers are working for those switching careers (age 30-34) rather than younger career starters (age 25-29)”.
In the fourth quarter last year, the proportion of HGV drivers under 45 was 37 per cent, up from 33.6 per cent in the same period of 2019. A drop was seen in those aged 50-54, following employment patterns more generally.
Kieran Smith, CEO of Driver Require, also commented on the apparent stabilisation on the release of the recruitment specialist’s latest driver shortage insight bulletin, but warned that some “very worrying” underlying dynamics remained within the HGV delivery workforce.
“The latest QLFS data shows that the UK’s HGV driver shortage appears to have stabilised at ‘severe’ status, which is a relief after the critical shortage during the summer of last year,” he said.
“We believe the reason it didn’t return to ‘critical’ status was due to pre-Christmas peak demand for haulage services being constrained by a combination of staff shortages in other areas, such as warehouse staff and van drivers, a shortage of HGV vehicles, and general supply chain disruption.
He continued: “In our last bulletin, we observed that there was worryingly high churn in the Under 45 age group. The Q4 numbers confirm our suspicion that the real problem is with the Under 30 age group which, having grown steadily from 15,000 to 30,000 over the previous 10 years, plummeted to a record low of 12,000 at the end of 2021.
“This represents an unacceptably high 67 per cent churn rate in 2021 and makes up more than half of the net churn of the entire HGV delivery workforce throughout the pandemic.
“We are extremely concerned because we are relying on this younger contingent to replenish the aging workforce. We believe that this acceleration in churn of the Under 30s was due to them being lured away by wage increases in other job roles with more attractive working conditions.”
On a positive note, however, Mr Smith acknowledged that the 50 per cent increase in HGV test capacity had helped avoid “what would have been an even worse scenario”.
He said: “While we are really encouraged that the shortage seems to have stabilised, we absolutely can’t sit back and relax. Our sector, in collaboration with the government, must make a concerted effort to address the issue of retention, especially in the younger age group.
“This will require coordinated and unified action to improve HGV driver working hours and conditions, and provide more quality secure HGV parking facilities – along with other measures to prevent drivers from leaving the workforce.”
