December sees truck market boom

The truck industry will remember 2013 as being the year of the busiest month ever – December – when nearly 11,000 trucks were registered in the run-up to the Euro 6 deadline, a threefold increase on the same month the previous year. Things came to a head when over 1,000 trucks were registered on 18 December.

Industry figures had predicted a busy final quarter to 2013 all year, but the extent to which customers held back on acquisitions until the very last minute to beat the Euro 6 deadline was unpredicted and unprecedented.

As a result, the market for trucks over six tones finished more than 28 per cent up at 49,430, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders.

Market leader DAF ended up with just over 28 per cent of the market, a share virtually unchanged from the previous year. Managing director Ray Ashworth told the DAF dealer network: “The 2013 truck market certainly ended with a bang! Outstripping even the most optimistic forecasts with a massive surge in year-end registrations, which saw over 10,700 trucks above six tonnes registered in December and took the full year volume in this weight range to 49,430. This is the highest annual registration volume in the UK since 2006.”

Ashworth saw the Euro 6 introduction, which served as both the last opportunity to register a cheaper Euro 5 vehicle and to gain a Reduced Pollution Certificate for a Euro 6, as combining with a renewal of confidence in the UK economy to force the last-minute surge.

DAF’s healthy near 30 per cent increase in volume was not quite enough to beat the market though, and for this it can blame rivals Mercedes (up nearly 37 per cent in volume), Scania (up over 47 per cent) and Volvo (up almost 39 per cent).

Volvo has little doubt that its success is attributable to its early introduction of models that were Euro 6 in all but exhaust emissions. Product manager John Comer said: “The customer feedback (from the New FH) has been very positive especially with regards to the driving experience, the improved space, improved ride and handling and the fine-tuned detail design – for example all-round vision and especially the new mirror design.”

He also accepted that operators were seizing the chance to snap up old models at probably never-to-be repeated prices: “Many customers looked to purchase the last of the Euro 5 trucks particularly in the rigid sectors, which has resulted in an excellent year for most manufacturers, but especially Volvo Trucks.”

Further down the table Iveco also delighted in beating the market, although UK managing director Claudio Zanframundo said the increase highlighted “just how distorted demand can get when factors outside the norm come into play.”

He pointed to the van market as an indication of what the growth in the truck market might have been without the introduction of Euro 6: in the order of five or six per cent.

Not all manufacturers share the spoils to the same degree. In 2012 Isuzu and Fuso benefitted from a surge in demand for high payload lightweights, and this year saw something of a hangover, particularly for Isuzu.

No such excuses at Renault Trucks though. The Volvo Group brand has already announced a retreat from the crucial 7.5-tonne sector, and with market share now only just over 5 per cent, all hopes must be pinned on acceptance of the new truck ranges by UK operators.

Hino’s future remains doubtful as we wait an announcement on its strategy for Euro 6.

It’s fair to say manufacturers view the coming year with apprehension, although the degree of dread varies.

Ray Ashworth cautioned: “The high volumes also suggest that many vehicles that could have been derogated to enter service during 2014 have actually gone on the road already.”

John Comer differed, but only slightly: “We expect 2014 to start with a flurry of activity as derogated Euro 5 trucks are registered, but we anticipate a small decline in demand for the more expensive Euro 6 models and the market moving back to more ‘normal’ levels towards the year-end,” he told Transport Operator.

Claudio Zanframundo was more outspoken, describing a “washthrough” which would distort the market for half the year.

“The volume of quarter four registrations last year confirms a massive pull-forward of purchasing across the industry – unlike anything we have ever seen before. Trucks that would normally have been ordered this year have already been built and delivered, and that is going to result in reduced entry in quarter one.”

He predicts a drop in registrations above 3.5 tonnes of 15.6 per cent to give a figure just below the 10-year average of 48,900.

High volume sectors such as the 7.5-tonne and three-axle tractor markets, that have been stuffed with new product in 2013, are likely to take the brunt of the decline – while demand for more niche vehicles such as 10-12 tonners is expected to continue to grow simply because such trucks are difficult to find on the rental or used market.

Last year saw the largest 7.5-tonners market since 2008, with an increase of nearly 19 per cent over an already healthy 6,444 in 2012. Market-leader DAF just about kept pace with the expansion, thanks in part to large and controversial deals with rental companies towards the end of the year.

Iveco consolidated its hold on second place while Mercedes toppled Isuzu from third, with its Fuso stablemate making up ground on its Japanese rival too.

Sixth-place MAN was the fastest-growing of all marques in this sector with an increase in volumes of over one-third. Much of this was apparently driven by vehicles going into its own rental fleet.

With many of the vehicles registered this year going into rental fleets, next year’s demand for 7.5-tonners is expected to be down considerably.

Growth in the multi-axle sector was across all vehicle types but was strongest of all in the four-axle sector, which is dominated by construction and refuse/recycling vehicles. Here the market grew by over 58 per cent to 3,588 and DAF more than doubled but was still unable to retake the market-leader’s crown from Scania which grew by nearly 79 per cent.

Other strong performances came from Mercedes (up 75 per cent) and Iveco (up 48 per cent), but the standout performer was municipal specialist Dennis which rose by 150 per cent to put 60 trucks on the road.

Registrations of 6×2 rigids rose by nearly 30 per cent, with market-leader DAF up over 68 per cent to take almost a quarter of the total of 4,356 trucks registered. Dennis pushed registrations up by over 39 per cent, and Scania by 33.5. Iveco fell by just under 13 per cent to 144 in a sector where all other players saw growth.

The 6×4/6 sector is less important than it was, but grew nearly one-third to account for 1,047 registrations last year. DAF increased registrations by over 166 per cent to jump from third to first place, while last year’s market-leader Dennis increased volumes very slightly but fell back into third, leaving Scania as runner-up after the Swedish marque posted an increase of just under 148 per cent. Volvo, Hino, Renault, Iveco and MAN all lost volume, indicating a polarisation in what is now becoming a niche sub-sector of the market.

Overall, multiaxle registrations finished almost 40 per cent up at 8991.

Last year’s tractor market was the biggest ever: driven by the urge to beat the Euro 6 deadline and pent-up demand caused by operators extending vehicle life in previous years. The sector finished 32 per cent up at 22,567 units, with the two Swedish manufacturers taking the lion’s share of the growth.

All but 3,851 of these vehicles were the heaviest three-axle tractors, and it is in this sector that the various manufacturers’ fortunes were decided.

Mercedes outsold the rest in the three-axle sector, posting an increase of almost 40 per cent, just narrowly pipped in percentage terms by second-place Scania which grew by less than one percentage point more.

But the fastest-growing marque of all was Volvo, which grew by almost 54 per cent.

Study of the figures reveals that those marques which grew the most were the ones that introduced new model trucks that were Euro 6 in appearance but still had Euro 5 engines. Mercedes hit the ground running at the start of the year with a plentiful supply of the handsome New Actros: a truck that had already won it leadership of the three-axle tractor market the previous year.

But Volvo’s New FH accelerated hard during the year, taking third place off DAF. DAF got some consolation in taking leadership in the two-axle sub-sector with over 29 per cent of registrations.

Renault Trucks, which was the only manufacturer to see volumes fall in the tractor sector, must now be hoping that its new Euro 6 range can turn things around. But with no eye-catching big-cab model to compete with the various ‘SuperMegaSpace’ flagships on offer from the other makes, it looks like being an uphill struggle.